I love Nebraska in this spot coming off a bye this team faces Northwestern a team that came into their building last year and won 28-25 when Nebraska was 17.5 point favorites. Now they get to return the favor in NW's home field which won't be much of a home field advantage. This game will be close to 50% Huskers fans because Northwestern just does not sell out and that will make this a neutral site type atmosphere and add in the fact that Nebraska has revenge and is off a bye and I really like the Huskers this weekend.
Nebraska's key here is Taylor Martinez and the running game, but don't sleep on Martinez passing the ball. He had his best game against Northwestern last year 28/37 for 289 yards and 2 TD. The running game is deep for Nebraska with the healthy Rex Burkhead back and the emergence of Ameer Abdullah leading the nations 5th best running team. Nebraska is actually ranked 2nd from a yards per carry perspective. Now Northwestern built this team to stop the run and they are doing it ranked 32nd allowing just 3.6 ypc. However, they have faced nobody that can run the ball so that ranking is a little deceiving. The average rushing offense ypc team they have faced is 86th. When Northwestern sells out to stop the run Martinez has shown the capability to beat you deep and I think they are well on their way to doing that in this game. Martinez has improved as a passer completing 66% of his passes and has 12 TD to just 4 interceptions. It pays that he's had extra reps against Nebraska's first team defense.
With the bye week their was a lot of reps for both the offense and defense against the 1st teams. That will dramatically help them in this game. Nebraska really struggles against mobile QB and that's what Northwestern has in Cain Kolter. Kolter really surprised an unprepared defense last year as Northwestern had three rushing TD's and 207 yards rushing while dominating the time of possession a year ago. I think the extra prep and the awareness of Northwestern's ability to run with the QB will make a huge difference. It also helps because Northwestern has lacked consistency in the passing game as they struggled in back to back games vs. Penn St and Minnesota so this idea that they have an explosive offense is a bit over rated as they haven't cracked 300 yards in the last two games.
Northwestern's defense has played much better than anyone expected, but I'm not shocked they have faced some of the weaker offenses and Penn State showed some vulnerabilities they have. I look for Nebraska's WR Jamal Turner to have a huge game. Nebraska's offense is 15th in converting third downs this year converting 50% of them while Northwestern's defense is ranked 55th, but has faced an average offensive third down team ranked 90th and haven't faced anyone ranked inside the top 50. I normally don't like laying chalk like this but in the case of Nebraska counting on having plenty of fans in attendance I am very confident Nebraska will dominate this game from start to finish.
In my opinion this game is a bit crazy. It's based on two Michigan blowouts of just bad teams and Michigan State's struggles, but when these two meet it's just a different animal and Michigan State matches up extremely well against Michigan.
First of all Denard Robinson unlike Taylor Martinez has yet to prove he can pass the ball and until he does I"ll continue to fade him and win money when he goes up against top tier defense. Michigan State is still a top tier defense ranked 5th in total defense. Michigan has played two other top 10 defenses and they lost both games. Michigan State is very good against the run ranked 15th in ypc allowed and that will give Michigan all sorts of troubles. On the flip side Michigan has been good against the run, but has struggled against offenses that are more physical. Leveon Bell is as physical as you get from a RB and I see him having success here. The team that has the most rushing yards has won 39 out of the last 42 match ups.
I do expect Michigan State to win the rushing battle. They still have a strength at LB led by Max Bullough and Denicos Allen who took over for Sr. Chris Norman and was all over the field last week against Iowa. I've spoke a lot about each teams rushing game, but Michigan State by far as the more balanced approach and are more likely to beat you through the air and ground. Andrew Maxwell has been victim of the tip pass. I've seen two of his interceptions fall do to the tip pass and he's faced very capable pass defenses and deserves more credit. The guy has faced 4 top 31 pass defenses and he's just now starting to find a go to guy at receiver in Aaron Burbridge who should have another good game. If Michigan State gets their TE Dion Simms back I will also add a play on the money line.
